When Will It Rain Again in Northern California
Sunny skies. Balmy temperatures. Walks on the beach. Umbrellas back in the closet.
After a soaking moisture Dec that ended burn season, delivered more than 15 feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada, and boosted hopes that California's severe drought might exist coming to an end, dry weather condition is dorsum, in a big style.
Like a baseball player stuck in a hitting slump, information technology hasn't rained significantly in the Bay Area for 14 days, since Jan. four. Although reservoirs received a overnice boost from large storms in December and late October, they even so remain well beneath normal levels in most parts of the land.
Fourth dimension to offset sweating that the state's two-twelvemonth drought might exist turning into a three-year drought? Not nevertheless, say experts. Equally it turns out, dry spells in the middle of wintertime are actually quite common. The key is how long they last.
There's been a dry stretch in well-nigh every winter season in December and January back to 1950 in the Bay Area. The average elapsing is 19 days.
"It's not unusual for us to accept dry periods in December and January," said meteorologist January Null with Golden Gate Weather condition Services in Half Moon Bay. "It's the rule rather than the exception."
What happens is that a ridge of high force per unit area builds up off the coast, diverting storms to the north or s, and bringing summer-like weather to wintertime Northern California. That's what's itinerant now.
The shortest such winter dry spell was 8 days long, in 1957-58 and in 1994-95, said Aught, who compiled the data. The longest was a parching 56 days in 2014-2015, during the depths of California'due south last drought. Only one winter season avoided the Dec-January trend — in 1964-65, when the dry out period started in early Feb and connected for 19 days.
Simply there's some reason to be concerned. The forecast calls for lots more dry, sunny weather across the Bay Area for at least the adjacent two weeks.
And as Goose egg noted, some other two weeks of that would put the Bay Area's dry streak at 28 days. That would rank it equally the 11th driest dry out spell in the past 71 winters, with no way to know how long the streak will continue.
And the longer the Bay Expanse goes without rain, the more likely a dry winter becomes. Overall, eight of the 10 winters since 1950 with the longest dry spells ended upwards with below-boilerplate rainfall.
On boilerplate, half of Northern California'southward precipitation falls in December, January and Feb. For the state to continue to fill reservoirs and emerge from the drought, February and March will need to exist wet.
"Nosotros but don't know what the remainder of the water year is going to exist similar," said Jeanine Jones, drought manager for the California Department of Water Resources in Sacramento. "We tin't count our chickens until they are hatched. We've had a very proficient first to the water yr and we hope that continues."
The lack of rainfall is returning some of California'south eye-popping Dec numbers back closer to historical averages.
On January. 1, the statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack was 168% of normal for that engagement. On Tuesday, it was downward to 117%.
Rainfall totals around California cities show a like trend.
On New year's day'due south Day, San Francisco had received 191% of its historical boilerplate rainfall for the winter season. But Tuesday, that was down to 157%. Oakland fell from 219% to 174%. And San Jose, which didn't get as much rain during the large Dec storms, fell from a Jan. 1 total of 157% of normal to 116% on Tuesday.
How much more rain and snow volition it take to end the drought?
"The reply depends on where you are," Jones said. "If y'all are a local water agency with a full reservoir at the end of this winter flavour you might say from your perspective the drought is over."
In Marin County, the seven reservoirs owned past the Marin Municipal Water District on Tuesday were 95% full — a stunning turnaround from three months ago, when they were but 32% full.
Merely many other areas are still struggling, she noted.
In Santa Clara Canton, the 10 reservoirs operated by the Santa Clara Valley H2o Commune were just 26% total on Tuesday. That's upwards from xi% a month agone. But they remain very depression because the area didn't get as much rainfall as the North Bay. And because the district's largest reservoir, Anderson, near Morgan Loma, is tuckered for federally required earthquake repairs.
The state'southward biggest reservoirs have seen improvement. Shasta, the country's largest, was 34% full on Tuesday. Oroville, in Butte County, was 44% full, having risen virtually 100 anxiety since this summer. Folsom, n of Sacramento, was 56% full.
"Nosotros're better now than where we were in mid Dec," Jones said, "only we aren't out of the woods however."
Brayden Murdoch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-60s are probable for at to the lowest degree the next 10 days.
"Unfortunately, it doesn't look like much is going to modify," he said. "We are expecting dry, warm conditions through the end of the month."
That means water managers will exist putting a lot of hope on February and March. The winter rainy season typically ends April 1.
"We had a very moisture Oct, then a adequately dry November, a wet December, and a dry Jan," Zilch said. "We can hope for the pattern to repeat and bring usa a wet Feb."
Source: https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/18/california-drought-january-is-a-rainfall-bust-how-big-of-a-problem-is-that
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